What's the probability of a Trump presidency?

Markets are pretty sure Donald Trump won’t be America’s next president.

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“The market is attaching less than 20% probability that Trump will win,” says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets. “That’s the main reason the market is not actually moving because of the elections–at least not for now.”

As we get closer to November 8, we may see a “Trump trade,” Tal adds. “It would be negative, because regardless how you look at it, the market will be nervous about the possibility of Trump becoming the president.”

Meanwhile, “An election win by Hillary Clinton would be a non-event for the market.”

Tal says the market is more interested in “earnings, valuations, fundamentals and the Fed, as opposed to the elections, despite the fact that this is maybe the most interesting election in generations.”

Read: Anger over economy will make Trump president, says Gundlach

Nonetheless, investors should brace for impact as the vote draws near. “[This] has the potential to be [a] volatile election period, given the huge difference between the candidates. Trump is an unknown. [His] policies can really derail markets in a significant way.”

He adds the market “simply doesn’t know how to digest” the sweeping reforms Trump could make to NAFTA and free trade, among other issues.

The Sept. 7 George Washington University Battleground Poll shows the race is “about even,” with 42% of likely voters supporting Clinton and 40% supporting Trump. A Huffington Post aggregation of major polls shows Clinton is “very likely leading.”

Also read:

Why Donald Trump appeals to angry, unemployed men (from our sister site, Macleans.ca)