Market numbers: Monday, June 29, 2009

| North American markets | International markets | Bonds | Currency | Commodities |

The Toronto stock market is set to benefit from higher oil prices at the open ahead of a shortened trading week in Canada and the United States.

The August crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 62 cents to US$69.78 even as the International Energy Agency said oil demand is set to drop for a second-straight year, the first time oil demand has fallen for two consecutive years since 1982-1983.

The IEA also revised its oil demand figures downward amid the global recession, saying that oil demand is likely to grow by an average of 0.6 per cent annually over the 2008-2014 period.

The agency said the recessionary impact, combined with signs of a structural shift to less intensive long-term oil use, were behind its cut of at least three million barrels a day to its oil demand forecasts for the coming five years.

The Canadian dollar was up 0.14 of a cent to 86.78 cents US.

The TSX hopes to build on a gain of just under 1% last week. But the spring rally’s gains have been harder to come by since the market hit a new high in the 10,714 range on June 11, about 300 points shy of where the main index settled on Friday.

Since then, as the second quarter comes to a close, investors are at a crossroads. After running up the market more than 35% in three months, investors have become more skeptical of the economy’s recovery in recent weeks amid a mixed bag of data.

New York markets pointed to a higher open with the Dow Jones industrial average futures gained 30, or 0.4%, to 8,403. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 3.60, or 0.4%, to 917.50, and Nasdaq 100 index futures added 8, or 0.5%, to 1,484.75.

Investors were pleased by data showing that European business and consumer confidence rose for a third straight month. Still, the European Commission took a cautious stance, saying the economic rebound in Europe is relatively subdued.

There is little by way of economic or corporate news scheduled for Monday, however this week, which is shortened by Canada Day on Wednesday and by the Independence Day holiday on Friday, brings key data that will give investors a better sense of where the economy is headed.

Statistics Canada will release April gross domestic product figures on Tuesday. Economists expect to see a contraction of 0.1% on the month, following a 0.3% dip in March.

And on Friday, the U.S. government releases its June employment report.

Investors will also get readings on consumer confidence and manufacturing this week.

In corporate news, the chief executive of Agrium Inc. (TSX:AGU) says CF Industries Holdings Inc. is still resisting takeover efforts from the Calgary-based fertilizer giant. Mike Wilson says CF’s chairman indicated he was not willing to meet to discuss the nearly US$4 billion deal.

He says CF is disregarding the wishes of its shareholders, 62 % of whom had tendered their stock to Agrium’s offer as of last week and Agrium is still pursuing its hostile bid for the American fertilizer company, which expires on July 22.

Major Asian markets drifted lower as Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index slid 93.92 points, or 1%, to 9,783.47, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 71.75 points, or 0.4%, to 18,528.51.

London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, Frankfurt’s DAX gained 1.4% while the Paris CAC 40 was up 1.65%.

(The Canadian Press)

North American markets

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	Close	Change	YTD
Dow Jones	8,438.39	-34.01 or -0.40%	-3.85%
S&P 500	918.90	-1.36 or -0.15%	+1.73%
NASDAQ	1,838.22	+8.68 or +0.47%	+16.56%
TSX Composite	10,389.76	+33.91 or +0.33%	+15.60%

International markets

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	Open	Change	YTD
Nikkei	9,783.47	-93.92 or -0.95%	+10.43%
Hang Seng	18,528.51	-71.75 or -0.39%	+28.78%
SENSEX	14,785.74	+21.10 or +0.14%	+53.26%
FTSE 100	4,276.69	+35.68 or +0.84%	-3.55%
CAC 40	3,180.45	+50.72 or +1.62%	-1.17%
DAX	4,847.52	+71.05 or +1.49%	+0.78%

Bonds

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Bonds	$Current	$Previous	%Yield
Cdn. 10-year bond	103.08	102.81	3.38
Cdn. 30-year bond	118.99	118.59	3.88
U.S. 10-year bond	96.84	96.63	3.51
U.S. 30-year bond	99.13	98.77	4.30

Currency

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BoC Open	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.8678	0.8664
US $	1.1523	1.1542

Euro Spot Rate	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6168	0.6159
Euro	1.6212	1.6237

Commodities

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Gold	AM	PM
London Gold Fix ($US)	$939.75	$942.00

Oil	Open	Change
WTI Crude Future (US)	$69.81	+$0.65 or +0.94%

(06/29/09)