Economic releases and news to watch

This week, there are several business news items to keep tabs on. Here’s a summary, based on reports from analysts and Canadian Press news.

Already, B.C. has unveiled its 2017 provincial budget. On Tuesday, B.C. Finance Minister Mike de Jong delivered a budget that was expected to focus on areas such as the economy, education and taxes.

Read: B.C. budget surplus means tax cuts for business, individuals

In his weekly commentary, Prab Sagoo of Nasdaq Advisory Services says there will also be several notable economic releases in Canada this week. That includes retail, payroll and CPI data, which will “give good insights into the strength of the Canadian consumer and insights ahead of Q4 GDP, due at the start of March.”

In a Scotia Economics report, Derek Holt calls for a slight rise in headline inflation. Holt, who’s vice-president and head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, says, “Friday’s release of another round of inflation figures may incrementally inform Bank of Canada risks, but that’s unlikely to be a material effect. I think headline inflation will rise a tick to about 1.6% year over year.”

He notes that would keep inflation below the BoC’s 2% target and well within the 1% to 3% policy band.”

Read: A rate cut is on the table

Also in the cards this week is another slew of earnings. Canadian banks will get most of the attention, says Sagoo, but earnings will also be released from companies such as Loblaws, CCL Industries, Magna, Pembina and Husky.

Holt says investors will be interested because Canada’s earnings season “lags the U.S.”

Read: HSBC Bank’s retail banking unit on solid footing

Outside of Canada

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve will release notes from its last meeting, which concluded on February 1. Sagoo says, “We do not expect a big trade off this given Chair Yellen’s testimony given last week.”

In his report, Holt makes the same point: “Fed Chair Janet Yellen stole the thunder away from […] Wednesday’s minutes […] during her two days of semi-annual Congressional testimony. If not for this, the minutes would have been more heavily parsed for policy clues and guidance […].”

Read: UPDATED: Trump’s policies could influence Fed, says Yellen

Still, he adds, “the Fed continues to face an uphill battle to convince markets that March is a credible risk for a rate hike.” As of February 21 at 1:30pm, CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated there’s a 77.9% probability that the Fed will stand pat on March 15.

Holt notes markets will also be watching Latin America, given “a pair of central bank policy decisions will be on offer. […] Both decisions could bring easier monetary policy to Brazil and Colombia.”

Meanwhile, in Europe, markets will be focused on sentiment surveys.

Read: Eurozone economy running at near 6-year high