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Unemployment in Canada will reach almost 10% by next year, despite the federal government’s stimulus efforts, according to the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).

The OECD’s annual employment outlook says the recession’s impact on the labour market could be worse than the last recession of the early 1990s.

“Even if the unemployment rate has already peaked, Canada’s labour market typically takes a long time to recover from recessions,” the 30-member group said in the report.

The estimate contradicts other indicators which suggest the pace of job losses may be easing. According to the Conference Board of Canada’s new help-wanted index, there was an increase in new online job postings in August, a hopeful sign that the labour market is poised for a recovery.

Canada’s unemployment rate is currently 8.7%, and is expected to continue upward. Royal Bank of Canada chief economist Craig Wright said Wednesday he expects the jobless rate to hit 10% later this year and drop to 9.7% by the end of 2010.

The OECD reports that job losses have been particularly acute among Canadian working-age men, “reflecting a high concentration of job losses in traditionally male-dominated industries such as manufacturing and construction.” It also says the federal government’s fiscal package should have a “relatively large effect” in curbing job cuts, estimating that the spending package will reduce job losses by between 0.7% and 1.1%.

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RBC predicts modest economic growth

The Canadian economy is gaining steam under aggressive economic polices, says RBC Economics.

In its latest report, RBC predicts that although the Canadian economy contracted at an average rate of 3.4% in the second quarter, the stage is set for a return to positive growth by Q3. The report projects that the Canadian economy will grow by 2.0 and 2.4% in the third and fourth quarters of 2009, respectively, and 2.6% in 2010.

RBC is expecting a sharp rebound in auto production in the third quarter and a recovery in the housing market leading the economic charge.

“Improved financial markets, low borrowing rates and fiscal stimulus have moved Canada’s economy forward,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC.

Not everything is rosy though. Consumer spending is still handcuffed by the 8.7% unemployment rate, which RBC sees edging higher by year’s end.

For a complete copy of the forecast, please click here.

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Deadline for CIA nominations looms

The closing date for the Canadian Investment Awards is fast approaching. Final applications are due September 30th, 2009 and entrants are asked to complete their submissions at www.InvestmentAwards.com.

The winners will be announced at the Canadian Investment Awards Gala held on Wednesday, December 2nd at the Fairmont Royal York in Toronto.

In its 15th year, the Canadian Investment Awards and Gala recognizes the excellence in Canadian investment products and firms.

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Invesco Trimark launches “Human Spirit Index”

Invesco Trimark thinks Canadians have coped very well in hard times and wants to reward them.

With the launch of the “Resiliency” campaign, visitors to the official site — knowingpays.ca — will gain access to perspectives on market cycles, investment decisions and dealing with financial crises.

“Last year was one of the worst financial periods in our lifetime,” said Peter Intraligi, president of Invesco Trimark. “We believe the best thing for investors is to focus on the things they can control. Seeking to better understand investment insights is a great place to start.”

Unique to the site is the “Human Spirit Index” (HSI), which brings together information from various international online sources to capture “a daily reading of the human spirit using five universal factors of well-being: physical, intellectual, spiritual, economic and social.”

Invesco Trimark claims the index will track how resilient the human spirit can be during challenging economic times.

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Pension fund assets continue slide

In the third consecutive quarter of declines, retirement savings held in employer-sponsored pension funds fell $19.8 billion, or 2.4%, in the first quarter of 2009, reports Statistics Canada.

Employer-sponsored pension funds amounted to $791.1 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2009, down $163.5 billion from a high of $954.6 billion at the end of 2007. First quarter expenditures of $31.4 billion eclipsed revenues of $17.6 billion for a negative cash flow of $13.8 billion.

StatsCan says the negative cash flow is due to continuing losses on the sale of securities, and reduced investment income and pension contributions, which both typically peak in the fourth quarter of each year.

(09/16/09)