Push for herd immunity drives Covid-19 vaccine market: Morningstar

Unheard of a year ago, the market for newly developed Covid-19 vaccines this year is forecast at US$39 billion, according to a new report from Morningstar.

The firm said that as developed countries seek to reach herd immunity in the year ahead (representing 1.3 billion people), the market for Covid-19 vaccines will peak, before dropping back in 2022 and beyond.

Morningstar’s forecast for the Covid-19 vaccine market in 2022 drops to US$16 billion.

The report’s base case assumes herd immunity in the U.S. by May, with worldwide immunity not reached until the second quarter of 2023.

Alongside the vaccines, Morningstar estimated that new Covid-19 treatments — mainly antibody treatments from several pharma companies — will have combined sales of over US$10 billion this year.

The report also suggested that the industry’s success in rapidly developing vaccines and treatments will also generate substantial future goodwill for the sector.

“The amazing speed to market of Covid-19 treatments and vaccines and relatively low pricing should help the biopharma industry in future policy discussions with governments, which may not want to risk damaging industry innovation and productivity with highly disruptive pricing regulations,” the report said.

James Langton

James is a senior reporter for Advisor.ca and its sister publication, Investment Executive. He has been reporting on regulation, securities law, industry news and more since 1994.