Leading indicators take a turn for the worse: OECD

Economic growth looks set to lose momentum over the next six to nine months, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) latest composite leading indicators (CLIs).

The OECD said its latest leading indicators, which are designed to anticipate cyclical shifts in economic growth trends, suggest that growth momentum will weaken in the months ahead due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and ongoing supply chain challenges.

“The CLIs are now either at or below long-term trend levels in most major OECD economies,” the OECD said.

“Pushed down by high inflation and very low consumers’ confidence, the CLIs point to a loss in growth momentum in the euro area as a whole, including in Germany, France and Italy, and also in the United Kingdom and Canada,” it noted.

The outliers to the overall slowing trend are the U.S. and Japan, where the CLIs continue to point to stable growth.

In the major emerging economies, the CLIs also now point to growth losing momentum in China (for the industrial sector) and slowing growth in Brazil, but stable growth in India, the OECD noted.

The CLIs — which include a variety of forward-looking indicators such as order books, confidence indexes and building permits — are more volatile than usual, the OECD noted, due to uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine and the ongoing pandemic.

James Langton

James is a senior reporter for Advisor.ca and its sister publication, Investment Executive. He has been reporting on regulation, securities law, industry news and more since 1994.