Economics data to watch this week

The highlight in Canadian economics indicators this week is February’s GDP data. Month-over-month GDP will be released Friday.

In a weekly report, National Bank says it expects the financial services sector to have increased at a good pace, in line with solid results in home sales. While manufacturing results have also been positive, gains could be offset by weak results in retail and utilities.

“All in all, we expect output to stay flat month over month,” says the report.

Wholesaler trade could be an early sign of a less robust GDP. Released today, wholesale sales fell 0.2% in February, led by lower sales in personal and household goods, and the food, beverage and tobacco subsections. The change follows four consecutive months of increases.

Also to be released (Thursday): the survey of employment, payrolls and hours for February.

“We’ll be especially attentive to the survey’s measure of wages, which could bounce back above the 2.0% mark year over year following 21 consecutive months below that threshold,” says the report.

Also look for Ontario and Nova Scotia to table their budgets. Stay tuned on Advisor.ca for Ontario budget coverage.

In the U.S., Q1 GDP growth will be released Friday by the bureau of economic analysis.

National Bank expects investment spending to contribute to growth due to rising shipments of non-defence capital goods, excluding aircraft. As well, consumption and trade have expanded. In contrast, housing starts are a drag on growth. The bank forecasts 1.0% growth annualized quarter over quarter.

Monetary policy

Also this week, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan decide on monetary policy.

For the former, advance CPI for April will be available; for the latter, March indicators will be released, including national CPI, unemployment, retail sales and industrial production.

You can keep track of monetary policy with this interactive global monetary policy tracker, created by Benn Steil, director of international economics, and Emma Smith, analyst, at the Council on Foreign Relations. The tracker covers 54 countries and allows users to filter data. The tracker’s current summary for monetary policy is 2.9, on a scale of -10 to +10, in favour of tightening. The summary comprises each country’s monetary policy stance weighted by its currency’s share of global foreign exchange reserves.

Read the full National Bank report.