Don’t look to the BoC to solve Canada’s housing and economic woes, Macklem says

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is laying out the limits of monetary policy as he warns the central bank can’t solve problems such as housing affordability with interest rates.

According to prepared remarks Macklem delivered in Montreal Tuesday, he said history shows monetary policy is quite effective at controlling inflation in the medium term.

But the governor said it also has limitations, including an inability to address short-term price fluctuations.

And despite the effect of higher interest rates on shelter costs today, the governor said monetary policy cannot address the structural barriers behind the housing crisis.

“Housing supply has fallen short of housing demand for many years. There are many reasons why — zoning restrictions, delays and uncertainties in the approval processes, and shortages of skilled workers. None of these are things monetary policy can address,” he said.

The governor delivered a similar message to MPs on the House of Commons finance committee last week as he faced questions about housing affordability.

The Bank of Canada’s rate hikes have fed into higher mortgage interest costs for homeowners and borrowing costs for developers. However, high population growth has also added fuel to the fire as more people look for shelter.

The central bank says shelter costs are now the primary driver of above-target inflation.

Canada’s inflation rate was 3.4% in December.

Macklem also warned in his speech that interest rates can’t fuel economic growth in the long run, noting that can only be accomplished through population growth or productivity growth.

“Canada has been very good at growing its economy by adding workers,” the governor said. “But productivity growth, by which I mean more output for the same amount of work, has disappointed. This is a problem because higher productivity pays for higher wages and underpins a rising standard of living.”

The Bank of Canada is currently holding its key interest rate at 5% and is widely expected to start cutting interest rates around mid-2024.

Although the central bank is avoiding discussions on the specific timing of rate cuts, the governor has indicated that it is now trying to gauge when it will be able to start cutting rates.