China debt-to-GDP gap hits 30.1%

China’s large debt is growing and posing a risk to the global economy, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

BIS measures the credit-to-GDP gap, defined as the difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio (corporate and household debt) “and its long-run trend.” The BIS says the measure is “a useful early warning indicator of financial crises,” and that, as of March, China’s gap had grown to 30.1%, three times higher than the safe level of 10%.

By comparison, Canada’s credit-to-GDP gap is 12.1%, and the U.S. difference is -9.9%.

But China’s debt pales in comparison to that of some other large economies. BIS estimates China’s total credit outstanding at 255% of GDP. That’s lower than that of the euro area or the U.K. The aggregate for all advanced economies is 279%.

Economists worry about the rate of China’s debt accumulation because efficient capital investment becomes difficult in the short term. But many analysts say China’s low level of foreign currency debt and its government-controlled banking system make a crisis less likely.

Staff

The staff of Advisor.ca have been covering news for financial advisors since 1998.